It’s only been two years since Vin Banyama entered the NBA, and the league is already preparing for its next talent – Cooper Flagg. Multiple teams are eyeing the star. But judging by the fact that Venebanyama was drafted by the Spurs, swinging for the fences alone won’t guarantee a first-round pick. To get Flagg, teams need to have the following elements like the Spurs:
- Moderate swing: swinging is only the basis for increasing the probability of a first dollar signing, you can’t lose without a bottom line.
- Strong team tradition: a team with depth is more likely to produce superstars, rather than relying on the first dollar signing alone to turn things around.
- Excellent management and coaching team: A team needs to plan long term to develop a star with league impact, not just the core of the team.
Is the NBA lottery mechanism really fair?
The NBA uses a lottery system where the three worst teams each have a 14% chance of getting the top pick. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll always get what they want. For example, the 2023 Pistons have the worst record in the league, but only drew the fifth pick for the third straight year. And the 2022 first-place pick was drawn by the Magic, who have won just 36 games, with a probability of just 3 percent. Such results are seen as the league’s way of warning teams not to swing for the fences in bad faith.
In fact, NBA history has been riddled with controversy over the first-place lottery:
- 2016, the lottery had not yet begun, NBA Hall of Famer Mutombo tweeted an early congratulations to the 76ers for winning the first-place lottery.
- 2017, before the Lakers drew, Magic Johnson assured head coach Walton that they would win the top three spots.
Similar coincidences have led many to question the existence of behind-the-scenes manipulation of the NBA’s lottery.
Why might the NBA be “meddling” with the top picks?
First-round picks often have a profound impact, but few have changed the landscape of the league over the past 30 years. Historically, the first-rounders who have gone on to become superstars don’t seem to have gone in a completely random direction:
- 1992 O’Neal joined the Magic, Orlando is the center of tourism in the United States, the commercial value is huge.
- 2003 James was drafted by the Cavaliers, an Ohio native who eventually led the team to a championship.
- 2008 Rose was drafted by the Bulls, a native of Chicago, and became the youngest MVP in history.
If these “coincidences” are connected, it’s worth pondering whether the NBA would intentionally steer a first-round pick to a more suitable team.
Who is most likely to get Cooper Flagg?
Currently, the Wizards, Jazz, Hornets and Pelicans are the teams with the best hopes of landing a top-three pick. Among them, the Jazz’s developmental environment is the most “preferred” in the NBA. 1:
- The team has a deep heritage, although rebuilding for many years, but never completely rotten.
- Management strength , the team’s general manager Angie in the NBA contacts.
- The team’s cultural fit, Flagg is a white player and Salt Lake City is a predominantly white city.
In addition, since the implementation of the lottery system in 1985,** the Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Thunder, Jazz ** 8 teams have never drawn the first prize. If the NBA wants to “take care” of these teams, the Jazz, Mavericks, Heat and other teams could be the “lucky ones”.
Conclusion
The fairness of the NBA’s first-place lottery has always been controversial. From past cases, the league seems to favor sending the most commercially valuable players to the right market. This year’s lottery may still be full of unknowns, but it probably won’t be surprising if it ends up in the hands of a team like the Jazz or the Mavericks.
